Did 3rd-party votes give Trump the election?
No. Even if all 3rd party voters in every swing state voted for Harris, it would not have been enough for her to defeat Trump.
Explanation
Harris lost by 80,618 votes in Michigan, and 3rd parties got 110,025. This lost her 15 electoral votes. If all 3rd party MI voters chose her, she would have won the state.
Harris lost by 29,417 votes in Wisconsin, and 3rd parties got 49,294. This lost her 10 electoral votes. She could have won the state if all or most 3rd party voters chose her.
There were no other swing states that could have been swayed by 3rd-party voters switching to Harris.
Trump had 312 electoral votes & Harris had 226. These 25 extra electoral votes would have brought it to 251 Harris and 287 Trump.
Two states of interest: Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes between the candidates. Main has 4 electoral votes, Nebraska 5, so these 9 electoral votes only would have brought Harris to 260 if she got all of them. She did get some of them so that math is still bad, but whatever.
Summary Data
- Georgia: Harris lost by 117,007. There were 38,859 third-party votes.
- North Carolina: Harris lost by 189,804. There were 64,844 third-party votes.
- Michigan: Harris lost by 80,618. There were 110,025 third-party votes.
- Pennsylvania: Harris lost by 144,371. There were 66,697 third-party votes.
- Wisconsin: Harris lost by 29,417. There were 49,294 third-party votes.
- Arizona: Harris lost by 181,883. There were 26,934 third-party votes.
- Nevada: Harris lost by 47,648. There were 26,980 third-party votes.
Source
Swing States 2024: Battleground States Map, List & Electoral Votes - POLITICO
I reviewed their numbers on November 8, 2024 and made a spreadsheet. A CSV copy (without formulas) is below:
State,Electoral Votes,Trump,Harris,3rd Party,Lost By,Lost bc 3rd party?,
Georgia,16,"2,660,936","2,543,929","38,859","117,007","78,148",
North Carolina,16,"2,877,926","2,688,122","64,844","189,804","124,960",
Michigan,15,"2,804,647","2,724,029","110,025","80,618","-29,407",
Pennsylvania,19,"3,506,662","3,362,291","66,697","144,371","77,674",
Wisconsin,10,1697298,1667881,"49,294","29,417","-19,877",
Arizona,11,"1,492,266","1,310,383","26,934","181,883","154,949",
Nevada,6,"721,938","674,290","26,980","47,648","20,668"
The "lost by 3rd party?" column is the "Lost By" minus "3rd Party".
Also, Nevada has a ānone of these candidatesā option! Woah!