You're a voter, not a political analyst
We should not concern ourselves with voting strategies. We should not care how "effective" a politicans' ads are going to be. We should not accept bullshit rhetoric just because it will work for our preferred candidate.
We should vote with integrity, based on what we want as individuals, based on a reasonable knowledge of the candidates' policy positions.
It is our duty, and when we buy into the gamesmanship, we shirk our duty as citizens, as voters.
Leave the political analysis to the dweebs running campaigns and 24/7 "news" stations.
P.S. This is an idealized approach, which would be better served by ranked choice voting, which I believe some states are adopting. States (in the U.S.) run their own elections, so we can enact ranked-choice state-by-state. We don't need it federally. Counties may even be able to convert to ranked-choice without statewide changes.